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International Silver Market Review and Outlook

Degree is very active, thanks to strong demand and lower inventory levels, silver prices by the end of last year's $ 466 / up up to $ 566 an ounce, an ounce. However, the expected strong demand for the Indian market price of silver rose immediately made a response,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], beginning from April sharp decline in Indian demand for silver, silver imports in the month from 3 124t reduced to 34t. May little silver imports. As the demand for silver in India accounts for 15% of the world to 20% on the international market price has a significant impact. May,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the Bank of England introduced the gold sell-off plan, the international price of gold dropped sharply, but the price of silver is not great. Although some people are still optimistic about the role of preserving the value of silver, but silver in 1999 the price of view, it is stronger than base metal and precious metal contact of the question. According to estimates by foreign institutions, the world's mineral resources in 1999 than in 1998 annual production of silver has increased greatly, but because of reduced production and regeneration of silver demand, the supply gap will be greater than in 1998, is expected to reach 4666t. 3 Prospect 3.1 world silver supply and demand will increase the forecast according to the World Silver Institute World ,1998-2002 cumulative production capacity of about mineral silver 2800t. Among them, independent of the cumulative increase in silver production of 1080t, by-product of silver production will total new 1720t. 2OO0 expected in copper, lead, zinc mine production will grow by 4% to 7%, by-product of silver production will be increased, the independent production of silver influenced by market prices, such as the 2000 average price of silver not less than 5 U.S. dollars an ounce, the independent production of silver will not be reduced. Overall, the projected 2000 world silver production will increase mineral about 3.5%. The demand for silver for industrial use have been increasing in recent years, with further improvement in world economic situation and broaden the application areas of silver, industrial demand for silver will increase. Silver photographic industry, although faced with the threat of digital imaging technology, but in recent years, demand for silver in photographic industry is still steady growth can be seen, the traditional camera industry still has strong in the next few years, the two will go hand in hand, and common development. Digital cameras worldwide are projected to reach 20 million units, while traditional cameras will reach 830 million units, digital cameras accounted for only about 3%. The Asian financial crisis, demand for jewelry and silverware the larger East Asian region and India's economic situation has continued to improve, good jewelry and silverware the economic environment is an important condition for increasing demand. At the current world economic situation is expected, the world silver demand will be 2% to 3% annual growth rate. 32 silver price rise in the next two years was not much room from the silver fundamentals,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], supply shortages will continue, but also the shortage of silver for many years of business inventories fell to historic lows. New York Mercantile Exchange in 1992 year-end inventory for the 9176t, and 1998 has been reduced to 2358t. Supply shortages and inventory reduction should be beneficial to support the price of silver. However, governments,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], institutions and individual investors are still holding the hands of the existence of a large number of silver, with silver prices rise,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], this part of the price of silver will rise further into the market as the resistance. Only the market gradually reduce or absorb this part of the deposit of silver, the supply and demand balance can really affect the market price. From the history of the silver market and the recent trend of view, silver prices in the $ 5, Ang has strong support, but the break through $ 5.5, which will meet a lot of selling an ounce of pressure. 33 Chinese silver market liberalization on the international market will not have too much influence from January 1, 2000, China's management of the silver from the \with the international market and the financing. According to the People's Bank of China recently published \which may be a net importer of silver from the original into a net exporter, China's inflow of silver may be a large number of international markets. According to official statistics, China's annual silver supply surplus of about 500t. With the silver Management Reform process, the original production of silver and support enabling some preferential policies may be reduced or abolished, some independent silver could face difficulties. and silver processing, the liberalization of business activities is bound to stimulate domestic growth in consumption of silver, silver the amount of excess supply will be significantly reduced. If the State Bank to gradually and orderly stock market inflows, China's silver market-oriented management will not have much impact on the international market. 37

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